In the past 40 years, outbreaks of infectious diseases have also been underpinned by population exoduses. The 2019/2020 coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has sharpened focus on the role of human population movements in rapidly spreading pathogenic microbes from a local hotspot to the global scale (Bedford et al., 2020 Chinazzi et al., 2020).
Understanding why, when, and how past epidemics/pandemics spread is therefore key to contextualizing current outbreaks. Pandemics are the most dramatic manifestation of the rapid and efficient spread of infectious pathogens, capable of influencing the course of world history. The fascist “plague” that inspired the novel may no longer be a reality, but many other varieties of “pestilence” mean that this theme still has relevance today (Franco-Paredes, 2020). For instance, the ongoing Covid-19 crisis has sparked renewed interest in Albert Camus’ novel “The plague”, originally published in 1947. This narrow outlook has recently changed due to the coronavirus pandemic and its profound impacts on human health, the global economy and the geography of travel.
Historians, scientists, and wider society have generally paid little attention to bygone epidemics, with the marked exceptions of the Black Death and the Great Plague of London (Duffy, 1977). Our analysis demonstrates that warfare provided a backdrop for significant microbial opportunity in pre-industrial Europe. Cooler climate conditions during the Little Ice Age further weakened afflicted groups, making European populations less resistant to pathogens, through malnutrition and deteriorating living/sanitary conditions. This period was concurrent with steep upsurges in plague outbreaks. We find that AD 1450–1670 was a particularly violent period of Europe’s history, characterized by a mean twofold increase in conflicts. conflicts), and the spread of plague epidemics in pre-industrial Europe (AD 1347–1840). Here, we use annually resolved data to probe the link between climate, human behavior (i.e. While previous research suggests that conflicts may have accentuated historical epidemics, this relationship has never been quantified. Indirectly, conflicts also have severe health consequences due to population displacements, with a heightened risk of disease transmission. One of the most devastating environmental consequences of war is the disruption of peacetime human–microbe relationships, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases.
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